Moh Nabiel Erfan Menyelesaikan Ujian Tesis Program Magister di UI 2021

Pada hari Selasa, 5 Januari 2021, Moh Nabiel Erfan, penjaga secara administrarif Wabsite ini menyelesaikan tugas studinya di Universitas Indonesia Jakarta. Tugas menulis tesisnya dilakukan dengan memperoleh datanya melalui penelitian di Kabupaten Sukabumi, dapat dilaksanakan dapat diselesaikan.
Garis besar singkat dan inti dari penelitian yang dilakukannya dapat disimak dari abstrak tesis yang dikutip lengkap (atas izin penulisnya) serbagaimana berikut ini.

Abstrak Tesis 

Nama                        : Moh Nabiel Erfan

Program Studi          : Magister Manajemen Ketenagalistrikan dan Energi

Judul                          : Pengaruh Pandemi terhadap Konsumsi Energi Listrik di Daerah dengan Menggunakan ARIMA

Pembimbing             : Dr.-Ing. Budi Sudiarto S.T., M.T.

 

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh pandemi virus covid 19 terhadap konsumsi listrik pelanggan pada PLN Rayon Unit Layanan Pelanggan (ULP) Cikembar Kabupaten Sukabumi.
Pandemi virus covid 19 menyebabkan Pemerintah Kabupaten Sukabumi dan PLN mengeluarkan kebijakan untuk menekan laju pertumbuhan covid 19 yang menyebabkan perubahan pola hidup masyarakat dan konsumsi energi listrik pelanggan.
Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini menggunakan metode ARIMA Time Series dengan pemodelan intervensi step function.
Data konsumsi listrik pelanggan menggunakan data Januari 2016 hingga Agustus 2020 dengan periode intervensi mulai Maret 2020 saat kebijakan kegiatan belajar mengajar dilakukan dari rumah.
Dari pemodelan intervensi step function akan diketahui bahwa jenis konsumsi listrik pelanggan apakah dipengaruhi oleh kebijakan pemerintah, musiman, atau tidak dipengaruhi oleh kebijakan pemerintah serta dari data tersebut dapat dibuat perkiraan beban pemakaian listrik untuk periode berikutnya.
Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa konsumsi listrik pelanggan rumah tangga terdampak pada kebijakan Pemerintah Kabupaten Sukabumi dan PLN dengan error forecast sebesar 3.732%, penurunan penjualan kWh Pelanggan industri hanya efek musiman dengan error forecast sebesar 22.077%, penurunan penjualan Total kWh hanya efek musiman dengan error forecast sebesar 8.09%, dan konsumsi listrik sosial, bisnis, dan pemerintahan tidak berdampak pada kebijakan Pemerintah Kabupaten Sukabumi dan PLN karena tidak sesuai secara teoritis ketika kebijakan Pemerintah Kabupaten Sukabumi diterapkan maka konsumsi listrik pelanggan sosial, bisnis, dan pemerintah akan berkurang.

Kata kunci: ARIMA, model intervensi, konsumsi listrik, kabupaten sukabumi, PLN, kebijakan.

Saya harapkan, semoga dengan telah selesai dilakukan pengujian tesisnya dalam ujian akhir studi di Universitas Indonesia Jakarta, ilmu yang diperolehnya bermanfaat dan maslahat, mendapat petunjuk yang mencerahkan, dan jauh dari hal-hal yang tidak diinginkan atau abai terhadap hal-hal yang membawa madharat dan sesat, Amin (Erfan Subahar).

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